How the Spurs Will Survive the Semis

By Dave Leister

No doubt the first two games of this year´s Western Conference Semifinals (Semis) series has had its share of oddities which have helped foil the Spurs all the way into an 0-2 series hole. Technically speaking, though, the Spurs are right where they should be, and if you don´t believe me check the Vegas lines for the first and second games in which the Spurs found themselves as three point underdogs. So in a practical sense, all the Spurs did was what they were supposed to do. Now as this series shifts back to San Antonio, this deeply experienced, championship-proven team will do what it is supposed to do, which is beat New Orleans in games three and four.

But beyond that, if you follow this logic, then San Antonio is destined to lose in seven games. Besides, to lose by eighteen and nineteen in New Orleans is pretty ugly. True, those are ugly loss margins, but the Spurs were not down thirty and cut the leads down to sub twenties to save some inkling of face. In both games the Spurs led at the half. The Spurs have only themselves to blame for much of their undoing thus far in this series. So I´m not sold on the idea that New Orleans is destined to win this series in seven games or less. I still think that San Antonio can take one of four games in New Orleans. There are two strong historical precedents which, among other precedents, sprout several reasons as to why the Spurs can win one game in New Orleans.

To begin, the Hornets are not in the class of the 2001 Los Angeles Lakers. In that series, after the first half of the first game you wondered “why bother”, which the Spurs did not do en route to a 22.5 point average victory margin sweep by the juggernaut Lakers.

Secondly, the Spurs came back from two straight Finals game pummelings by the Detroit Pistons to squeak out a game five overtime victory. The Spurs lost those first two in Detroit by seventeen and thirty-one.

So the Hornets are not the 2001 Lakers and the Spurs came back from two shameful straight playoff losses on the road in the 2005 Finals. But there are many more tangible reasons why the Spurs can still win this series, none of which have anything to do with the pipe dream of the Hornets´ lack of playoff experience becoming their undoing.

Walk with me now as I lead you back to confidence and belief in a four time championship team.

I must admit that I watched not one minute of either of the first two games. Neither was televized in Brazil, although the rest of the games in the series should be. I followed the game via nba.com audio and live boxscore. I also read several postgame press clippings. But I did not need to watch the games. I know the Spurs all too well. Like a blind wine connoisseur, I do not need to visualize its garnet colors to know that a 2004 Almaviva Carmenere-Cabernet Franc is rivetingly rich and full-bodied. I can taste it.

The first two games ended by nearly the same victory margins for New Orleans, and in both games the Spurs led at the halfway point only to absolutely implode in the third quarter. In the second game, as poorly as the Spurs played in the third quarter, you cannot blame it on age because, at least speaking for the second game, the Spurs crawled back within striking distance midway through the fourth yet simply could not buy a bucket. Well, maybe those old legs just didn´t have enough lift in those late jumpers. Nah, still not buying that. The Spurs´ poor shooting started in the second quarter.

No, the Spurs lost the first two games not because of age, but because of missed jumpers and turnovers at truly inopportune, momentum-shifting or killing moments. In fact, the Spurs shot a pathetic 8-27 from beyond the arc in the second game. For the series they are a paltry 20-58. It is hard to encourage a team to shoot 58 three pointers in two road games, but when you are getting as many wide open looks as the Spurs are getting, as a professional, you must take the shot. Had the Spurs shot a sub-par 12-27 yesterday from beyond the arc and had Manu Ginobili, among several other examples among several underperforming players, not gone turnover happy in the second quarter, the Spurs might have had a shot at stealing that second game.

So the Spurs return to San Antonio not physically whipped by any means. As a starter, they need to simply make open shots when they get them. As easy as it might be to succomb to one´s emotions and curse the team for choking and shooting poorly, one must look at this team from a roster and historical perspective. Any team´s shooters can go hot and cold at any time, but its difficult to imagine a winning team like the Spurs staying cold beyond two road games. Look for the Spurs to come home with hot hands to create space for Tim Duncan in the third game.

Beyond shooting woes we have seen knuckleheaded turnovers by everyone from Ginobili to Tony Parker. We´ve seen stoned-stupid fouls be the likes of Ime Udoka and Jacque Vaughn. Duncan has done his share of whining to the officials, and regardless of how justifiable a protest may be, there is never an excuse for losing one´s rhythm and flow due to pausing to complain to officials. So look for the Spurs to clean up their passing and composure acts in the coming games.

Finally, when a team is leading in the first two games of a series on the road at halftime only to get destroyed in the third quarter in near identical fashion both games, then something is awry with the rotations, i.e. the coach´s strategy. Again, based on over a decade of solid championship contention, I fully expect Gregg Popovich to find the right gameplan and rotation beginning in the third game. I expect to see Bruce Bowen on Peja Stojakovic more, for example, and I expect more cuts and backscreens to get some movement out of Duncan on offense and also to help slashers like Parker and Ginobili find creases.

Most of all, I expect the Spurs to be welcomed home by a commited, faithful and very loud fan base. The fans alone will ensure that the Spurs return to New Orleans next week tied at 2-2. Then the Spurs will have the momentum and knowledge and firsthand experience how to win games against the Hornets. Also, the Spurs will return to New Orleans avowed to avoid the silly sloppiness which cost them games in their prior two visits there. Bringing it home for a sixth game, the Spurs would aim to close out, fully intent on doing whatever it takes to not have to return to New Orleans for a dangerous seventh game.

I´ve seen the battle-hardened and smart San Antonio Spurs wade through the manure, get laughed at and riddled by the national pundits and bandwagon fans for over a decade. More often than not I´ve seen that same team rise to the many challenges with a collective strength which would defy any other franchise under similar circumstances. Anyone who thinks the Spurs are defeated either dislike San Antonio or do not know this team. Its time to change the momentum, and that change starts with a resounding blowout victory in the third game on Thursday night, and will be followed by a defensive masterpiece on Sunday.

Spurs in six.

Post your comments on this blog in our fan forum…