San Antonio Spurs Preview

With the trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Emmanuel Ginobili the Spurs were able to win a franchise record 63 games despite a less than 100 percent Duncan and a frequently injured Ginobili. However, a Game 7 loss to the Mavericks in the Western Conference Semifinals spoiled the Spurs opportunity to repeat as NBA Champions. The Spurs were unable to control the matchups and tempo against the Mavericks. The Mavericks also appeared to have more offensive weapons. The series showed both that Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed were not athletic enough to contribute in a full-court game, and that Robert Horry and Brent Barry may be coming to the end of their careers.

To address these deficiencies, the Spurs sent Nesterovic to Toronto in exchange for Matt Bonner and Eric Williams. Bonner is an excellent shooter (career 42% from 3-point range) and gives the Spurs more versatility in the front court. He is also an excellent defender who can guard either power or small forwards. Williams provides experience and depth along the front line. The Spurs allowed Mohammed to sign with the Pistons and replaced him with two younger, more athletic players, in Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler. The Spurs are expecting Elson to start at center, but believe Butler has more upside and could become a solid player in a couple of years. With Nick Van Exel's retirement, the Spurs signed veteran point guard Jacque Vaughn to battle Beno Udrih for the backup point guard spot. Udrih is talented but has difficulty with turnovers and shot selection. The position is more critical than ever as starter Tony Parker suffered a broken finger while training with Team France this summer. While Parker is expected to be ready for the start of the regular season, it is unclear whether this injury will have a lasting affect on his ability to shoot the ball. If the Spurs can avoid a major injury to Duncan, Parker or Ginobili, and the newcomers can provide the athleticism and versatility that was lacking last season, look for them to compete for the NBA championship once again.

PLAYING TIME DISTRIBUTION

Francisco Elson and Jackie Butler should split time in the middle and each get 15-20 minutes per game. The other minutes should be split up between Fabricio Oberto and Robert Horry. Tim Duncan will play power forward and get about 35 minutes, as coach Gregg Popovich will limit Duncan's minutes to keep him fresh for the playoffs. Duncan could also log some minutes at center. The rest of the time will be shared between Oberto, Horry and Matt Bonner who also can play small forward. Bruce Bowen will log roughly 30-35 minutes a game at small forward with Bonner and Michael Finley getting the other minutes. Emmanuel Ginobili will start at the two-guard and get around 30-35 minutes while Finley should get the rest of the minutes and should log around 25 total minutes. Tony Parker will start at point guard and should see 30-35 minutes per game with the rest of the time going to either Jacque Vaughn or Beno Udrih. Brent Barry will get time at multiple positions and should see about 10-15 minutes per game. Eric Williams and Melvin Sanders will add depth to the roster while Charles Lee, Jared Reiner, Rich Melzer, Jamar Smith and Olu Famutini have been invited to preseason camp to battle for a roster spot.

PLAYER OUTLOOKS

Center

Francisco Elson: Center is the only position that changes in San Antonio these days. They traded Rasho Nesterovic and let Nazr Mohammed go to free agency, and will go with a cheaper tandem of Elson and Jackie Butler. Whichever one wins the job won't be getting a whole lot of playing time and even less scoring chances. Elson's strong and can run the floor, but his offensive game is limited. And he's prone to fouls (2.9 per game in 21.9 mpg).

Jackie Butler: Butler is a young player (just 23 years of age) who has some upside, but is inexperienced. Butler has more offensive potential than Elson, but is not expected to reach his full potential for a couple of years. He should expect about 15 mpg at center.

Forward

Tim Duncan: Duncan's contributions as fantasy player have been in decline for several seasons now, as the Spurs limit his regular-season minutes somewhat and his overall numbers suffer as a result. That said, Duncan is still an excellent source of rebounds, blocks and field-goal percentage, so long as you can absorb a hit to your free-throw shooting. Duncan's scoring has declined for four straight seasons, but he's still good for 18 per game, which is nothing to sneeze at, especially if he qualifies at center in your league.

Bruce Bowen: Bowen is a player whose skills don't translate into a good fantasy player. He is a great individual defender, but is not a great scorer (7.5 ppg) or shooter (career 40.9% FG, 57% FT). Bowen does have the ability to knock down the three, but look for some of his opportunities to go to the newly acquired Matt Bonner.

Robert Horry: Horry will provide the occasional big shot, but plays limited minutes in the regular season and by the end of last season looked to be near the end of his career. Horry struggled in last year's playoffs and shot a career low 38.4% in the regular season.

Fabricio Oberto: Oberto can play either the power forward or center position but appeared to struggle in finding his role with the Spurs, especially on the defensive end, in his first year with the club. He averaged only 8.3 minutes per game and produced 1.7 ppg and 2.1 rpg. Expect these numbers to increase especially if Elson and Butler struggle. Oberto was known as a good offensive player in Europe, but struggled with fouls (1.5 per game in 8.3 mpg).

Matt Bonner: Bonner was brought in by the Spurs to create match up problems on the perimeter and to complement the post presence of Duncan. He is an excellent 3-point shooter (career 42.1%) and foul shooter (career 81%). While Bonner is a good defensive player, his fantasy value is limited as he does not rebound, block shots or get assists.

Guard:

Tony Parker: Yes, he has championship rings and a girlfriend that keeps popping up on the cover of Maxim. That doesn't make Tony Parker especially useful in fantasy. (Not fantasy basketball, anyway.) Parker's career scoring average is just 15 ppg, he's never issued more than 6.1 assists per game in a season, and he's a terrible free-throw and three-point shooter (just 11 threes made in 2005-06). You'd get better production than that from any one of several guys on this list. Plus, he suffered a broken finger while training with Team France this summer, and may or may not be ready for the start of Spurs training camp. On the other hand, he's still just 23 years old, so there's plenty of room for improvement.

Emmanuel Ginobili: Ginobili had a relatively disappointing fantasy season, as nagging injuries prevented him from making the leap to fantasy superstar that his previous playoff-run had suggested was in the offing. Robbed of much of the quickness that made him such a difficult matchup, Ginobili took a step back in almost every category (15.1 ppg, 3.6 apg, 3.5 rpg, 46% FG, 78% FT). The only areas that Ginobili maintained from the previous season were defensively (1.6 spg, .4 bpg) and from behind the arc (1.3 threes per game). At 6-6 with a quick first step, nice ball handling skills, and an aggressive attitude, Ginobili still has all of the characteristics to be a top-tier scorer in today's NBA, and if health permits, he could make this season his one-year delayed fantasy coming out party.

Michael Finley: Finley had the worst statistical season of his 11-year NBA career as he had career lows in all major fantasy categories, except free-throw percentage. At times he appeared lost in the Spurs half-court system and had trouble adjusting to his role coming off the bench. Now that Finley has had a year in the Spurs system, look for better production, but nothing to resemble his days with the Mavericks.

Brent Barry: Barry is nearing the end of his career as all his numbers except field-goal percentage were down from the previous season. Barry is getting fewer minutes and with Matt Bonner being a younger, taller version of the 3-point shooting Barry; look for his numbers to continue to decline.

Jacque Vaughn: Vaughn was brought in primarily as insurance in case Tony Parker got hurt and Beno Udrih could not handle the pressure of major minutes. Vaughn has never been an offensive player as his career average is only 4.8 ppg. However, Vaughn does possess an over 2-to-1 career assist-to-turnover ratio and this is primarily what the Spurs want from him.

Beno Udrih: Udrih took a step back in his second season with the Spurs primarily because of ill-advised shots and costly turnovers. Udrih is an interesting prospect as he shoots a decent percentage (45.5% last season) and is very aggressive offensively (5.1 ppg in 10.9 mpg). If he wins the backup point guard job, and Tony Parker is not fully recovered, Udrih could be a contributor for the Spurs.

Sleeper:

Tim Duncan: It may be a stretch to call Duncan a sleeper, but sleeper in this instance refers to a player who will outperform their draft position. Duncan was limited by bouts of plantar fascitis as he had career lows in points, rebounds, blocks and field goal percentage. A summer of rest, plus inexperience on the front line should help Duncan's numbers soar near his career averages (22 ppg, 50% FG, 12 rpg, 2.4 bpg). Duncan owners should be encouraged by the numbers a healthier Duncan put up against the Mavericks in the playoffs (32.3 ppg, 11.7 rpg, 55% FG, 73% FT, 2.57 bpg).

Bust:

Tony Parker: Again it may be a stretch to call Parker a bust, but Parker is likely to be drafted higher than his true value warrants. Parker averaged a career high 18.9 ppg on 54.8% FG. With a healthier Tim Duncan and concerns about Parker's broken finger, expect Parker's numbers to be closer to his 2004-2005 season of 16.6 ppg on 48.2% FG.