What to look for in game 3

By Libri

I went back and took a look at the previous games between Spurs and Hornets and even though they say that the playoffs are a different atmosphere than regular season, I think there are some interesting precedents.

The two games that the Spurs won were on Nov. 9th and Feb. 23. I dismissed Nov. 9th because it was too early to take into consideration. Here are the scores of the last four regular season games and the two playoffs.

Regular Season
November 9: W 97-85
January 26: L 78-102
February 23: W 98-89 *
March 12: L 75-100

Playoffs
May 3: L 82-101
May 5: L 84-102

If you all notice the scores of all four loses, they are very similar. Even though the Spurs have been losing it in the third quarter these last two games, during the regular season the Spurs lost it in the fourth. Suffice to say that the second half has been the turning point.

Paul has had his way in the last five games, but only had 4 assists in the last Spurs win on Feb. 23. Perhaps the Spurs should let Paul get his points but limit his assists by concentrating on covering Peja and West. Not getting them involved might keep them from getting into a rhythm. Interestingly, in this last playoff game the Spurs had more assists than the Hornets, 24 to 22.

Also the rebounding for the most part has been lopsided, except for Spurs win on Feb 23, where they out-rebounded the Hornets 43 to 35. In the last playoff game, the rebounding was about equal with the Hornets getting 41 and the Spurs 40.

The Spurs bench has been for the most part ineffective, except for that regular season on Feb 23 where they produced 20 compared to the Hornets 18.

Spurs have been able to get enough shots in all the games with the Hornets, so we can expect this trend to continue but they haven’t done particularly well with the threes. Even in that Feb 23 game, when the Spurs won, they shot 31.8% compared to the Hornets 41.2%. So we might expect poor three point shooting to continue in the following games. This could change if Barry gets more playing time. He didn’t play in any of the regular season games against the Hornets. So looking at this last playoff game, it seems that, statistically, the Spurs were on their way to making it close but did poor on three point shooting and bench production. You compound this with poor performances by Parker and Ginobili, evident in their turnovers, then you get a lopsided score.

So what stands out in that Spurs win against the Hornets of Feb 23?
Rebounding, assists, turnovers, and bench production

Here are the areas I will be looking for in game three:
1. How are the Spurs Rebounding?
2. Will the Spurs let Paul have his points but limit his assists by closing on Peja, West, and Peterson?
3. Are we getting some production from the bench or at least nullifying Hornets bench?
4. How much playing time will Barry get? Will he break the Spurs’ trend of poor three point shooting? He seems to be on a little streak.
5. How are Tony and Ginobili doing with respect to turnovers?

Even if the Spurs are not shooting well from the three point line, but are doing well in rebounding, limiting Hornets assists, and bench production, I think they can pull off game three. If the Spurs have a good three point shooting game, then that will open up a whole other dynamic that we haven’t seen in previous games. We will see.

What will you be looking for?

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